#Fact - Did you know? Pakistan tested its first nuclear weapon in 1998, becoming the world's seventh state to do so, and currently possesses 165 nuclear warheads, compared to 156 of India, according to the Stockholm International Peace Institute's most recent estimate.
During the Cold War, if America launched a nuclear-tipped missile, Soviet satellites would notify the Soviet army in three seconds, and Soviet counter-missiles would be launched in less than five seconds.
But have you ever considered what would happen if the same circumstance arose between erstwhile friends and deadly adversaries India and Pakistan?
This is how it would unfold if India and Pakistan launch a nuclear attack.
First, let us discuss
Pakistan's missile capability.
As of today, Pakistan has ZERO operational and ready-to-use nuclear weapons with delivery systems.
The first point to highlight is that a substantial number of Pakistan's nuclear weapons are liquid-fuel missiles, which means that Indian intelligence and recon assets (satellites, spies, drones, and perhaps defectors) might be alerted before the missile could launch.
Pakistan's nuclear projectiles are mostly tactical, which means they have a limited range.
Still, if Pakistan were to launch a nuclear missile towards Delhi.
Well, it would be a fascinating but terrifying situation.
However, in light of current facts and weapons deployment, if Pakistan intends to strike Delhi, it must do so through one of two routes - Sargodha and Jacobabad.
Air delivery of nuclear bombs by F-16 C/D air superiority aircraft deployed principally at these two airbases.
Surface-to-Surface Missiles & Delivery Systems -
Shaheen 1 (750–900 kilometers),
Ghauri 1 (1500 kilometers), and
Ghauri 2 (1800 kilometers) are now operational and can successfully reach Delhi from Pakistan's Punjab Province (an Ideal site to target is Delhi).
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| A Nuclear Warhead |
The missile must be prepped for launch with a mounted and programmed nuclear warhead.
Of course, in order to launch anything like this, a lot of strategic assets must be moved on the ground, which will never escape the attention of India's satellites and other reconnaissance assets.
Having said that, a nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India would not only include these two nations, but also their allies—China, Russia, the United States, Israel, France, and Germany.
As a result, there'd constantly be attempts to eliminate the risk of conflict.
India's Defence and offense capabilities.
While Pakistan may consider surprising its neighbors with a deadly surprise,India possesses a strong, well-tested Ballistic Missile Defense system, which includes S-300 missiles purchased from Russia in 1995 and Israel's Arrow-2.
It has a two-phase air defense system —
- Phase 1 (now will be deployed to defend all major cities) with Primary Air Defense and
- Phase 2 (will be deployed to safeguard Delhi and Mumbai) with Advanced Air Defense (AAD) to kill incoming missiles with pinpoint precision.
However, India does not yet have S400 anti-missile technology.
But India's missile defense shield could only take down one or two missiles, not a swarm of them.
It is definitely not in the same class as the United States' missile defense program.
The efficiency of missile defense in real-time is debatable.
Shooting down missiles is like striking one bullet with another, with a high chance of failure.
Many additional parameters, such as wind speed, come into play.
Missile defense systems may intercept one or two missiles, but we are not expecting a single missile to be intercepted.
Pakistan is aware that India has a BMD in place. So It will make every effort to outperform it.
Currently, India has just one anti-missile system (Barak-8) that provides greater protection from a nuclear strike than other systems such as Akash, S300, and others, and it is regarded as the world's eighth greatest anti-missile technology.
Unfortunately, there is no technology in the world to guarantee 100 percent protection against nuclear attack, since even a 1% failure of anti-missile systems would result in tremendous destruction.
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So If Pakistan tries to launch a nuclear warhead, it will be caught by RADAR, and since India is keeping an eye on Pakistan, Indian Intel will learn where it is directed.
Even if navigation systems locate and destroy a missile before it reaches Pakistan, if the missile contains nuclear warheads and is destroyed within the country before reaching its objective, the radiation will still kill hundreds.
If Pakistan really succeeds, it may precipitate World War III. The likelihood of this occurring is at least 40%.
Assuming the worst-case scenario, a nuclear attack on Delhi is successful.
If Delhi falls, the whole Indian government, as well as the military leadership, would be deposed.
Marshal Law will have to be implemented, and the strategic basis will shift inwards to Mhow (Madhya Pradesh).
Strategic Forces Command will reply by striking Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad with its massive missile arsenal.
The very first thing that will happen is that a million or more civilians are murdered instantaneously.
The very first thing that will happen is that a million or more civilians are murdered instantaneously.
If the nuclear bomb was a ground explosion, radioactive material would spread over dozens or hundreds of kilometers, killing more people.
Though the Indian military would press for massive nuclear retaliation, there would be internal opposition to such an attempt, but due to immense pressure from the general public and the Indian military, it will give the go-ahead to launch a strong conventional counter-attack on Pakistan's military in order to destroy its offensive capabilities.
India's Retaliation
The Indian military forces will be fully mobilized immediately and will begin an all-out assault on Pakistan with the goal of seizing control of Lahore.
By this time, world leaders would have announced a cease-fire at the UN emergency conference, with all permanent members supporting it, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Russia, with China perhaps abstaining.
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| UN Security Council |
India would very certainly react, either with its own nuclear weapons and scorching the whole of Pakistan or with conventional force against the launch site.
India also has Second Strike capacity, which Pakistan lacks.
It means that India may launch missiles from the sea if Pakistan causes a great deal of damage on the land, The counteroffensive strike by India will be so vast and swift that by the time Pakistan and its allies mainly China can think of any moves to counter the Indian offensive,
The Indian Air Force would be flying to Pakistan to intercept F-16 fighter jets capable of carrying and dropping nuclear bombs, while India's Brahmos missiles would be showered down on Pakistan with the goal of destroying nuclear-tipped missiles as well as launch pad facilities.
The Indian Air Force would be flying to Pakistan to intercept F-16 fighter jets capable of carrying and dropping nuclear bombs, while India's Brahmos missiles would be showered down on Pakistan with the goal of destroying nuclear-tipped missiles as well as launch pad facilities.
Aftermath:
- India will sustain heavy losses in North India and West India and cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Bengaluru will be hit.
- India might be hardly 30%-40% of the India that we have today. With people suffering from lots of radiation-related problems.
- The Indian economy would collapse, leaving it completely reliant on support from the rest of the world.
- In addition, if India retaliates quickly with a nuclear attack, Pakistan would suffer significantly far worse than India.
Is there a possibility of nuclear war between India and Pakistan?
As a result of their close proximity, a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan would be a devastating calamity for both nations.
And such a thing will never happen since both nations are always working to improve their diplomatic relations.
Although India and Pakistan continue to have territory and border problems, launching a nuclear assault on one another makes little to no sense.
As Einstein once said, "I don't know what weapons will be used in the Third World War. I only know that when the Fourth World War breaks out, the weapons used by human beings will be stones and sticks."
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